What if the outcome of a negotiation
is nearly decided by who says the first number?
At the negotiating table, almost everyone hesitates to speak first.
Sitting down at a salary negotiation,
most people think the same thing.
If I name a number first,
what if it’s too low?
Or what if it’s so high
it makes a bad impression?
So you wait for the other side to speak first.
“I’ll go with whatever the company thinks is fair.”
But the moment you hear their number,
you start thinking
only in terms of that number.
Even asking for a little more
suddenly feels like an unreasonable demand.
A rigged wheel in 1974 showed how an unrelated number can move our judgment.
In 1974, psychologists
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
had participants spin a wheel
numbered 0 to 100.
The wheel was secretly rigged
to stop only on 10 or 65.
Afterward, participants were asked:
“What percentage of African countries
do you think are members of the United Nations?”
Even knowing the wheel was completely random,
people who saw 65 guessed 45 percent on average,
while people who saw 10 guessed 25 percent.
This phenomenon has a name: anchoring bias.
The number itself
had nothing to do with the question.
And yet, whatever number came first
dragged the rest of the judgment along with it.
This phenomenon
is known as anchoring bias.
The brain would rather adjust from a given number than judge from scratch.
The brain tends not to form
an entirely new judgment from scratch.
Instead, it takes whatever number is already on the table
and adjusts from there.
Even when the first number
is absurdly high or low,
the brain tends to stay anchored close to it.
That is why the person who names a number first holds the advantage.
This is why the person who states a number first
tends to hold the advantage.
That said, this effect weakens
when the number
is obviously irrational.
An anchor needs at least some justification
to function as one.
Here is how to put it into practice.
① In a salary negotiation, name a researched number first
“I did a bit of research, and roles like this
seem to land around [X].”
Offer a specific number like that first.
A number backed by even a little research
lands far better than a high number with no basis.
② In family money conversations, propose the starting point yourself
Splitting holiday expenses,
deciding on an allowance for your parents —
family money conversations work the same way.
“What if we split it this way this time?”
When someone proposes a concrete starting point first,
the rest of the conversation
tends to get far easier.
③ When they go first, pause for a beat before you answer
If the other side throws out a number first,
don’t react to it right away.
“That’s a bit different from what I had in mind.”
Pause for a beat, then speak.
It is one way to weaken the anchor’s pull.
That said, throwing out an absurd number
backfires and costs you credibility.
An anchor only works
when it comes paired with a convincing rationale.
Today’s Insight
The winner of any negotiation is whoever throws out a prepared number first.
Closing
In your next negotiation,
will you be the one to name a number first?
Or will you still be
adjusting yourself
around someone else’s?